The power-three, as I’ll call them, of the Angels, Red Sox and Yankees will probably top everyone’s “sure pick” list this year…although possibly not in that order. But, and it pains me to say this as a White Sox fan, don’t discount the Twins or Tigers. I think the Tigers’ pitching will rebound, they’ll stay relatively healthy, and they’ll make a run into the playoffs. As for the Twins, their “MGM” studios will once again keep them as a threat. Mauer, Gardenhire, Morneau, in case you were struggling to figure that one out. A team of quality role players and superstars cementing themselves at the top tier in the league at their positions makes for a dangerous combination.

Current MLB odds for winning the 2009 MLB Pennant have it ordered as Yankees (9/2) who may implode under the weight of A-Rod and another year of overpaid, underperforming talent, Red Sox (15/4), Rays (11/2), which is a huge mistake in my opinion…I can see them falling hard this year, especially after 36 games against the Yanks/Sox, Angels (13/2) and then the Twins (10/1). The Tigers drop in a little more than halfway down at 13/1. I’ll tell you what, I’m not a Tigers fan, but as a long shot, dark horse early-season bet, I’d have no problem placing a couple hundred on them going back to the World Series. By the way, they’re a 26/1 shot to take home that prize.

Now, at quick glance at these baseball betting lines I’ll admit it looks like there’s far more talent that left that what arrived (departed, among others, is SS Edgar Renteria, RHP Todd Jones, RHP Kyle Farnsworth, OF Matt Joyce, LHP Kenny Rogers), but the rotation still boasts Verlander, Bonderman, Willis and I believe Nate Robertson. If they get back on track, they can stand up against anyone in the AL.

The Tigers GM said recently there were 10 possible All-Stars on the roster, which isn’t that far-reaching when you look at the lineup top to bottom. That alone should warrant a second look for the Tigers when placing your pre-season bets.

Few of us can pose a valid argument against the Lakers being considered the best basketball team in the NBA. The Lakers arguably have the best player in the league in Kobe Bryant and is surrounded by one of the best supporting casts in the league and they are coached by one of the best minds in the game. The Lakers win over 75% of their games and nearly 90% of their games that are played at home. Despite the 75% overall win rate, the Los Angeles Lakers have won less than half their games when pitted against the spread. In fact, the Lakers have won only 43% of their games against the spread and 50% ATS at home. Such a huge difference in performance suggests that teams such as the Lakers have unrealistic expectations thrust upon them by the betting public. Basketball bettors expect the Lakers to be bulletproof and bet them accordingly.

The Lakers are not alone, however. Other top tier NBA basketball betting teams such as the Mavs fall into the same boat. The Mavericks sport a 67% win rate straight up, yet they have won less than 50% of their games ATS and less than 33% of their home games ATS at home. Not far behind is the Boston Celtics, who have won over 70% of their games straight up, yet only 46% of their games ATS.

When betting powerhouse teams in the NBA, it makes sense that the betting public has unrealistic expectations on these elite teams. A person betting on the top NBA teams are best served avoiding the point spread, unless betting against them or betting the money line if you cannot seem to avoid betting on the team at all.

Home ice advantage is always a nice edge for the home team, but it usually doesn’t play that much of a factor in the NHL until the playoffs come around.

The amount of rest that a team has also plays a small factor in the NHL during the season. If a given team has had a 3 day rest and another team has played 4 games in 5 nights then obviously the team with the rest had the edge.

You should look at the head-to-head match-ups for the teams in any given game that you’re looking to bet on. Sometimes this won’t help you out at all because the teams are even, but in some instances you might find one team who always dominates another team.

Injuries are always a large part in hockey betting and whenever a team is missing one of their big stars they often don’t play nearly up to their potential. Take last year for example, when Ovechkin was injured last season for the Capitals they played terrible.

You should check out the teams past 10 games to see how they have done. Look for how many games they won, how many games they lost, how many goals they scored, how many goals they gave up, etc.

All of the above NHL betting tips will help you cap games on a daily basis. You need to get into a routine of capping games so that you aren’t simply trying to guess at who is going to win. A few other tips I’d like to share with you before leaving are as followed.

Try to stay away from betting on big favourites of -175 or more because if they happen to lose then you’re going to lose a lot of juice. If you’re dead set on betting on the then I would recommend betting on the puck-line. Generally if the NHL betting lines are -175 for a straight win the odds for a puck-line win would be around even money. If you aren’t confident that the team is going to win by two goals then you could spread out your bet by betting a bit on the straight wager and a bit on the puck-line wager.

Don’t fall in love with your favourite hockey team or teams because you’ll definitely lose money in the long-run. If you were to bet on any given NHL team to win all 82 all of their games you’ll often end up losing money by the end of the season. Teams in the NHL don’t win enough games to keep you at a high enough winning percentage over the season to be in the green. You can’t just consider the team’s record, but you also need to consider the juice you need to pay to wager on them each game. Often the teams in the top of the standings will be -150 – -250 favourites in most of their games. You need to be willing to bet on all of the teams, and your decision should be based off of your results from researching the tips I gave you above.

So what are these…tells…for lack of a better word? The first one revolves around the dealer. I call it the “wink”, but it could be any subtle facial tick, gesture, bob of the head, anything. A slight, almost instantaneous way for them to convey silently to you that they’re wise to your act. Regardless of whether you’re even doing anything wrong in their eyes, you can’t help but be caught off-guard by it. First, if you are counting, you’ll almost unconsciously start looking around, thinking the dealer accidentally tipped you off. Truth is, the dealer probably doesn’t know anything for sure. If you’ve done well, that’s enough of a suspicion right there to make the play on you. If you react like a guilty man would, they assume you’re guilty. The trick is they force you to give yourself away by your reaction. If you just smile back and take another sip of your drink, you’re probably going to be fine.

Another trick is changing up the shuffle or cut – throwing the blackjack players a curve. Half-shoeing is a popular one. If the player is counting or shuffle tracking, sees the cut and decides it hurts their odds, they may decide to get up and hit another table. Again, self-conviction. Most counters are wise to this, though, and will play the shoe out using minimum bets or close to it, and then leave. This is still too soon, in my opinion, because while it might not be enough to have them pull you aside on the spot, it’s enough for them to keep their eye on you for a while. If that happens, you might as well cash out and hit the restaurants.

Whatever you do, don’t assume the dealer is just making a “mistake.” Casinos like the Venetian don’t make mistakes too often, and while the dealer might be the low person on the totem poll, they’re working for the house the same as anyone else. Always keep your eyes open and play it cool.

On average, a home team scores a little over 1.75 goals per game when playing at home. Additionally, the home team surrenders fewer than 1.2 goals per game on average. This stat shows that the average soccer team has an edge of just over .5 goals per game when playing at home.

For example, suppose the Bolton Wanderers plays at home against Arsenal FC. The money line might look something like the following:

Bolton Wanderers +175

Arsenal FC -222

This means that if you bet on the Wanderers to win at home, you will win $175 for every $100 wagered if Bolton defeats Arsenal straight up. Additionally, you look at the soccer odds point spread way of betting and you notice the following line:

Bolton Wanderers +1

Arsenal FC -1

This line suggests that Bolton are being spotted an entire goal at home. As a result, the score line for the purposes of betting starts off with Bolton winning 1-0 against Arsenal. When presented with such a line, how should you bet if you are wanting to wager on the home team? In order to decide how to bet the home team, you should look at the league average for home goals scored compared to home goals conceded. Additionally, you should look over the home team’s record at home before deciding how to bet the home team. Additionally, you should consider similar statistics for the visiting team. In instances where the home team is getting points and the number of goals they receive are greater than the average difference in goals scored vs. conceded in both the league and the individual team’s average, you should take the points at home when you like the home team to win. If the home team is giving up points, or the points given to the home team are less than the team and league averages, you are best served betting the money line on the home team.